Traffic demand
assessment and forecasting

What the assessment reveals

Current demand on the road network

We assess how key streets, junctions and their approaches operate to establish baseline conditions.

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Impact of new development

We assess how housing, public facilities and commercial developments could change the number and direction of trips.

Future traffic volumes and network demand

We forecast how traffic flows may change as the area develops and check for potential capacity constraints.

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How will demand on the network change?

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Existing transport connections

Baseline network operation

Existing land use

Existing buildings, residents, jobs and trip destinations.

Observed traffic flows

Traffic volumes and directions recorded in surveys.

Network operating conditions

Traffic arrangements, street characteristics and the performance of key junctions.

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Road sections assessed for future demand

Forecast without additional measures

New development

Planned housing, public facilities and commercial developments generate additional trips.

Changes in demand

We estimate trip volumes and directions for the agreed assessment period.

Network constraints

We identify road sections and junctions that may need further assessment.

Connections considered in the measures scenario

Forecast with measures

Changes to transport connections

We assess agreed options for network development and traffic management.

Comparing options

We compare scenarios using the same starting assumptions.

Evidence for decisions

We document the impact of measures on road sections and junctions.

What data informs the forecast?

Transport surveys

Traffic volumes and composition, directions of travel and observed junction operation.

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Mobile network data analysis

Anonymised origin–destination data, user profiles and income levels by district.

Spatial analysis

Data on development, land use and construction phases.

Population and jobs

Where people live and work, planned growth and major trip destinations.

Transport network characteristics

Streets, junctions, traffic arrangements, public transport and constraints.

From data to network demand

Transport modelling connects every step, from studying land use and estimating trips to assigning traffic and assessing demand on the network.

1. Land use and development

   We review development plans and the location of housing, public facilities and business premises, then prepare inputs for the transport model.

2. Trip generation

   We estimate travel demand in the model based on land use and local characteristics.

3. Traffic assignment

   We model trip directions and assign traffic to the available connections.

4. Demand on roads and junctions

   We use the model to assess demand on road sections and junctions and identify constraints.

Where the assessment is used

What clients receive

The terms of reference define the deliverables, forecast horizons and file formats.